I've been unable to track my MVP chase since Christmas Eve.
But the data I had collected suggested to me an even simpler approach could be used. I'm still using minutes played, +/-, and games won as the criteria, with no regard to points, assists, turnovers, or other box-score material.
- If you're logging minutes, the coach thinks you're valuable.
- +/-,the stat showing the points the team scores minues the points it allows while you're on the floor, suggests how good the team plays when you're playing, regardless of whether your actions are measureable on stat sheets.
- The purpose is to win, so one's value should be measured not only in how well one plays, but in how that helps the team win.
Instead of tracking every game, I decided to look at the leaders in minutes plus +/-. Based on early season data, it appeared to me that 36 (average minutes plus average +/-) is the number that the leading players on winning teams usually get. It turns out,there are 29 players who are at the 36 mark. Seven are average over 40, with the LeBron James's 43.4 the highest.
This equation ranks players on my MVP list:
(minutes per game plus +/- per game) x games won (in which the player played, not total team wins) = MVP points.
Here's the list through February 7 games:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, F, Bucks, 1644 MVP points
2. LeBron James, G, Lakers, 1605.8
3. Jayson Tatum, F, Celtics, 1445
4. Khris Middleton, G/F, Bucks, 1409.7
5. Pascal Siakam, PF Raptors, 1353.6
6. Nikola Jokic, C, Nuggets, 1321.2
7. Rudy Gobert, C, Jazz, 1305.6
8. James Harden, G, Rockets, 1305.6
9. Bam Abedayo, F/C, Heat, 1319.2
10. Bojan Bogdanovic, F, Jazz, 1296.9
11. Anthony Davis, FC, Lakers, 1293.6
12. Kawhi Leonard, GF, Clippers, 1286.5
13. P.J. Tucker, FC, Rockets, 1234.2
14. Fred VanVleet, G, Raptors, 1224.5
15. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Thunder, 1224.2
16. Donovan Mitchel, SG, Jazz, 1203.2
17. Jimmy Butler, G/F, Heat, 1194
18. Tobias Harris, F, 76ers, 1174
19. Kyle Lowry, PG, Raptors, 1183.2
20. Ben Simmons, PG, 76ers, 1168.7
21. Chris Paul, PG, Thunder, 1158.4
22. Will Barton, GF, Nuggets, 1153
23. Jamal Murray, G, Nuggets, 1113
24. Domantas Sabonis, C, Pacers, 1102
25. Russell Westbrook, PG, Rockets, 1086.4
26. Luka Doncic, GF, Mavericks, 1012.5
27. Kemba Walker, PG, Celtics, 938
28. Damian Lillard, PG, Trailblazers, 919.2
29. Jaylen Brown, G/F, Celtics, 874
Those at the bottom of the list tend to have missed too many games; Lillard is down on that list because his team doesn't win enough.
In any MVP vote, it's clear to everyone that Middleton is too high on this list, and Doncic too low. But this illustrates why Giannis is at the top: he's so dominant, that a player like Middleton can ride his coattails. Luka is not so dominant; if he was, the Mavs would be winning at a greater clip; they're 27-16 when he's playing.
The default for the MVP would be "best player on the best team," and this list seems tor reflect it; the best players on the best teams are at the top of the list.
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