This year I was tested a formula to determine if a conference-neutral method could determine the four teams that should go to the College Football Playoff.
The top three results had the undfeated teams Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson in that order. To rank LSU over Ohio State is to put subjective criteria in the process, which I specifically avoided.
After the conference championship games, there were four one-loss teams that could take the remaing slot: Oklahoma, Boise State, Memphis, and Appalachian State.
My conference-neutral system of counting wins and losses against FBS teams, strength of schedule, and bonuses (or deductions) for each loss of 9+ points yielded inconvenient results. In order, the teams most deserving of hte fourth slot are:
1. Memphis
2. Boise State
3. Oklahoma
4. Appalachian State
I tried adding to the formula to account for the number of quality wins and bad losses. Nothing "helped" Oklahoma move up to #1, except its reputation as a Power-5 team.
All four teams lost its one game by just one possession. All those losses were to winning teams. If Oklahoma had scheduled a MAC or Conference USA oppoenent instead of FBS South Dakota, it would get the nod. But I'd also say that if one of these non-Power 5 teams had gone undefeated, it would have deserved to go into the playoffs.
That said, the results between Memphis, Boise State, and Oklahoma were razor thin. Oklahoma might have been helped by strength-of-schedule, except for one thing. Unlike most, larger conferences, the Sooners play a round-robin in the (10-team) Big 12. The overall strength of schedule in the conference has to be a constant:.500.
In other conferences, such as the Big 10, strength of schedule could vary. Rutgers on the schedule but not Ohio State. One could lose to Ohio State, but having Ohio State helps the strength of schedule. In other words, a team's strength of schedule within the Big 10 could be over or under .500.
Year in, year out, teams in the Big 12 don't have the good luck of having a "strong" conference schedule. It's always the same. But the conference as a whole ranks 2nd among all conferences in non-conference play. That gives the Sooners the edge.
Having said that, I think this year only the top three teams "deserve" to play for the championship. Oklahoma's the seat-filler. I'd be surprised if they make it past the semi-final. Kudos to them if they succeed.
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