My college football rankings were based on wins, losses, and strengh of schedule, with points added (and deducted) for wins (and losses) of more than 8 points (i.e., one possession).
For several weeks the only real oddities were the presence of AAC teams high on the list, particularly Cincinnati, which sat at or near #5 for weeks even though the Bearcats had been blown out 42-0 early in the season.
The rankings, in my opinion, weren't going to work if Cincinnati found itself at #4 or higher after the conference championship games, making them "deserving" of going to the playoffs in my system. In addition, Wisconsin came roaring up the charts based on its dominant run against a tough schedule, aside from one close loss to Illinois and a blowout loss to Ohio State. A two-loss team ahead in my rankings against several teams that are just one play away from being undefeated? My rankings weren't working.
I knew that would likely be the case. The problem was finding the flaw. I came to two conclusions:
1. I am correct in refusing to reward "rolling up the score" for victors; extra credit is earned for winning by two possessions, but no more credit is earned for winning by more than that. But I didn't account for the opposite: I do think blowout losses should be punished; just as there's a difference between being knocked out in the first round and being knocked out in the 11th, so there's a difference between losing by 10 and losing by 35. So I'm factoring how many possessions ( in increments of 8 points) a team is away from going undefeated.
2. My strength of schedule may have been too random; a team is punished if it plays a conference opponent who's winless, whereas a team that's really no better has a "stronger" schedule for beating a 4-win team conference rival. To offset that, I'll give extra credit for beating the good teams on the schedule; if the team is .500 or better against FBS teams even with its loss to your team, your team gets additional credit.
These adjustments helped Georgia most of all. The Bulldogs moved to #4, just as they are in the Playoff Selection Committee. Boise State was another beneficiary, whereas Oklahoma couldn't make progress from last week. It's not their fault as they scheduled fairly well non-conference; Houston and UCLA were supposed to be good.
As I see no two-loss team making it to the playoffs, I've ranked only undefeated and one-loss teams for now.
1. Ohio St. Their domination and number of overall quality wins may reserve the Buckeyes a spot in the playoff even if they're upset by Michigan this weekend, provided it's close.
2. LSU
3. Clemson
LSU might be in the same priviliged boat as Ohio State; they might afford to lose a narrow upset to Texas A&M if they go on to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. Clemson doesn't have such luxury against South Carolina.
4. Georgia Win this weekend against Georgia Tech and then LSU in the SEC Championship, the Bulldogs are in. Lose either one, they're out.
5. Utah If the SEC Championship is a preliminary "playoff" game, and it should be treated as such, then the Utes should slide in if they beat Colorado and win the Pac !2 Championship Game.
6. Boise State A field goal loss at BYU, which is a good team, is what's separating the Broncos from being undefeated and conversation about whether they belong in the playoff.
7. Alabama A lot of things have to go wrong for teams ahead of the Tide for them to get into my Top Four on December 8, but the Committee thinks differently.
8. Baylor The Bears' last regular-season game is against Kansas. That won't help their schedule strength. Oklahoma faces a much stronger Oklahoma State team. The Bears must beat Kansas convincingly and have revenge on Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game to move up.
9. Cincinnati Their one loss was to the best team: Ohio State. Theirs was also the worst loss; they weren't competitive against the Buckeyes. Still, their overall schedule strength is strong.
10. App State My rankings don't give relative weight to conferences, but to individual teams. Their remaining schedule isn't strong enough to vault the Mountaineers into my Top Four, I don't think.
11. Memphis A win against Cincinnati this week will, I believe, lead to a re-match the following week for the AAC Championship.
12. Minnesota The Gophers have the potential to make the biggest jump if they beat Wisconsin and then Ohio State for the Big Ten championship.
13. Oklahoma Despite their win against Baylor, the Sooners haven't been dominant. Beating Oklahoma State and Baylor again will help them get into the playoffs only if chaos ensues ahead of them. We'll see how the numbers shake out, but I don't see how they get into my Top Four even if we remove non-Power 5 teams (Memphis, App St., Boise St., Cincy) ahead of them.
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The rankings, in my opinion, weren't going to work if Cincinnati found itself at #4 or higher after the conference championship games, making them "deserving" of going to the playoffs in my system. In addition, Wisconsin came roaring up the charts based on its dominant run against a tough schedule, aside from one close loss to Illinois and a blowout loss to Ohio State. A two-loss team ahead in my rankings against several teams that are just one play away from being undefeated? My rankings weren't working.
I knew that would likely be the case. The problem was finding the flaw. I came to two conclusions:
1. I am correct in refusing to reward "rolling up the score" for victors; extra credit is earned for winning by two possessions, but no more credit is earned for winning by more than that. But I didn't account for the opposite: I do think blowout losses should be punished; just as there's a difference between being knocked out in the first round and being knocked out in the 11th, so there's a difference between losing by 10 and losing by 35. So I'm factoring how many possessions ( in increments of 8 points) a team is away from going undefeated.
2. My strength of schedule may have been too random; a team is punished if it plays a conference opponent who's winless, whereas a team that's really no better has a "stronger" schedule for beating a 4-win team conference rival. To offset that, I'll give extra credit for beating the good teams on the schedule; if the team is .500 or better against FBS teams even with its loss to your team, your team gets additional credit.
These adjustments helped Georgia most of all. The Bulldogs moved to #4, just as they are in the Playoff Selection Committee. Boise State was another beneficiary, whereas Oklahoma couldn't make progress from last week. It's not their fault as they scheduled fairly well non-conference; Houston and UCLA were supposed to be good.
As I see no two-loss team making it to the playoffs, I've ranked only undefeated and one-loss teams for now.
1. Ohio St. Their domination and number of overall quality wins may reserve the Buckeyes a spot in the playoff even if they're upset by Michigan this weekend, provided it's close.
2. LSU
3. Clemson
LSU might be in the same priviliged boat as Ohio State; they might afford to lose a narrow upset to Texas A&M if they go on to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. Clemson doesn't have such luxury against South Carolina.
4. Georgia Win this weekend against Georgia Tech and then LSU in the SEC Championship, the Bulldogs are in. Lose either one, they're out.
5. Utah If the SEC Championship is a preliminary "playoff" game, and it should be treated as such, then the Utes should slide in if they beat Colorado and win the Pac !2 Championship Game.
6. Boise State A field goal loss at BYU, which is a good team, is what's separating the Broncos from being undefeated and conversation about whether they belong in the playoff.
7. Alabama A lot of things have to go wrong for teams ahead of the Tide for them to get into my Top Four on December 8, but the Committee thinks differently.
8. Baylor The Bears' last regular-season game is against Kansas. That won't help their schedule strength. Oklahoma faces a much stronger Oklahoma State team. The Bears must beat Kansas convincingly and have revenge on Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game to move up.
9. Cincinnati Their one loss was to the best team: Ohio State. Theirs was also the worst loss; they weren't competitive against the Buckeyes. Still, their overall schedule strength is strong.
10. App State My rankings don't give relative weight to conferences, but to individual teams. Their remaining schedule isn't strong enough to vault the Mountaineers into my Top Four, I don't think.
11. Memphis A win against Cincinnati this week will, I believe, lead to a re-match the following week for the AAC Championship.
12. Minnesota The Gophers have the potential to make the biggest jump if they beat Wisconsin and then Ohio State for the Big Ten championship.
13. Oklahoma Despite their win against Baylor, the Sooners haven't been dominant. Beating Oklahoma State and Baylor again will help them get into the playoffs only if chaos ensues ahead of them. We'll see how the numbers shake out, but I don't see how they get into my Top Four even if we remove non-Power 5 teams (Memphis, App St., Boise St., Cincy) ahead of them.
If you find value in James Leroy Wilson's articles, your support through Paypal helps keep him going. If you'd like to hire James, you may contact him at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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