In 2007, with no playoff format against the BCS Title Game, a two-loss LSU Tiger team ended up in that game and ultimately became national champion. It's the only time a two-loss team has been national champion in the BCS or Playoff eras, or any era for that matter.
As of Nov 10, 2019, there are 26 FBS teams with two losses or fewer. As I have in previous weeks, I am ranking them on wins and losses against other FBS teams (with bonuses or deductions for winning or losing by 9+ points), and the average number of FBS wins by their opponents. The team record and ranking score based on my points system are also listed. This week I'll provide brief commentary for each.
Based on my ratings, a three-loss team may be rated higher than a team or two at the bottom of the list. For instance, I know that Texas scores higher than Indiana, but based on precedent no three-loss team stands a chance of making the playoffs.
1. Ohio State 18.17
The Buckeseyes have one each game convincingly (by two or more possessions; I don't keep track after two), and the schedule, while not as flashy as LSU's, is quite deep.
2. LSU, 9-0, 15.56
Could be #1 or closer to Ohio State except for wasting a week playing an FCS team. Not only do the Tigers not get credit for the win, they also don't get credit for that FCS team's wins.
3. Clemson, 9-0, 14.8
The ACC is particularly bad this year, and Texas A&M was the lone quality non-conference opponent. I don't punish Clemson, as most of the media has been, for its close call against North Carolina. But I didn't award them bonus points for the win either.
4. Alabama, 8-1 14.56
The Tide's narrow loss to LSU is kind of offset in that LSU helped Alabama's strength of schedule. Up until then, Alabama was beating everyone convincingly. They'll be crippled going forward by wasting a week playing an FCS team.
5. Cincinnati, 8-1, 14.5
A thrashing by Ohio State and its status as a member of the non-Power Five AAC conference hurts it in the eyes of the media, even though Wisconsin was also whipped by the Buckeyes yet gets more love for its membership in the B1G. But Cincinnati has otherwise soundly beaten almost all of its other opponents and has played a deep though not flashy schedule.
The Bearcats won't be invited to the playoffs because of the loss to the Buckeyes. It's the
wildcard in terms of my rankings: will I have them in the Top Four or not? Time will tell, and my ranking is based on formula than subjective judgment.
6. Minnesota, 9-0, 13.33
Until its Penn State victory, Minnesota was hurt by a weak schedule. But winning out, which means beating Iowa and Wisconsin, and winning the B1G Championship Game, will likely have them surge into the playoffs.
7. Penn State, 8-1, 13.33
Can still play into the playoffs by winning out, which would include wins over Indiana, Ohio State and the B1G Championship.
8. SMU, 9-1, 13.3
The Mustangs are rated this highly in part because they've already played ten games. But with Navy and Tulane still to play, their strength of schedule will be much stronger if they head into the AAC Championship game against Cincinnati.
9.Wisconsin, 7-2, 13.28
They've played the strongest (or at least deepest) schedule of all the teams on the list. With two losses, the Badgers will be seeking to play the spoiler and notch another B!G Championship.
10. Auburn, 7-2, 13.17
The second two-loss team on the list. Teams 11-14 have better records, but they each wasted a week playing an FCS team which downgraded their strength of schedule.
11. Georgia, 8-1, 12.78
As the best of the SEC East, it gets more love than wins over Notre Dame and Florida deserve; the Bulldogs have hardly been dominant. But I can see them getting into my Top Four by the end of the season if they win out.
12. Oregon, 8-1, 12.77
13. Utah, 8-1, 12.56
Best hope for either team to make the playoffs is that each wins out and face each other in the Pac 12 Championship Game.
14. Baylor, 9-0, 12.27
Wins over Oklahoma and Texas, and a win in the Big 12 Championship game will give the Bears a boost that could get them into the playoffs.
15. Michigan, 7-2, 12.17
Like Wisconsin and Auburn, did not waste a week playing FCS competition. But the Wolverines aren't as good.
16. Boise State, 8-1 11.88
I'm sure when it scheduled Florida State, the Broncos were hoping the Seminoles would be better. They weren't.
17. Oklahoma, 8-1, 11.81
I see no path for Okahoma to get into my Top Four at the end of the year, and in any case they certainly won't be selected by the Committee. The Sooners just aren't good enough.
18. Appalachian State, 8-1, 11.5
To their credit the Sun Belt Conference leaders beat both North Carolina and South Carolina this year.
19. Notre Dame, 7-2, 11.16
If the Irish beat Navy this Saturday, it will overtake USC for their best win of the year.
Navy.
20. Navy 7-1 10.88
Winning out could land them a Top Ten finish.
21. Louisiana Tech, 8-1 10.83
Winning out as Conference USA Champs could get them a Top 15 finish.
22. Wake Forest, 7-2, 9.11
An upset of Clemson could elevate their profile and ranking, but the Deacons already have two conference losses and can't be anything but a spoiler.
23. Florida, 8-2, 9.0
The Gators wasted not one, but two weeks on FCS competition. Are they more talented than this position would warrant? Maybe, but they're just 6-2 against the FBS.
24. Air Force, 7-2, 8.89
25. San Diego State, 7-2, 8.78
It's unlikely either team can advance much further up the list.
26. Indiana, 7-2, 7.89
Next up are Penn State and Michigan. Been good to know you, Hoosiers!
If you find value in James Leroy Wilson's articles, your support through Paypal helps keep him going. If you'd like to hire James, you may contact him at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
If you find value in James Leroy Wilson's articles, your support through Paypal helps keep him going. If you'd like to hire James, you may contact him at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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