A tale of two College Football Rankings

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The College Football Playoff Committee released its latest rankings Tuesday evening. I released mine on Sunday.

Here I show where the Committee has each team ranked, and after each is the team I have at that slot, followed by an explanation.

  1. 1. LSU (10-0), Ohio State (10-0)
  2. Ohio State had a better strength of schedule throughout, including playing a full slate against FBS opponents; LSU had an FCS game on its schedule.
  3. 2. Ohio State (10-0) Clemson (11-0)
  4. Clemson has played an extra game, pulling these these Tigers agead LSU for now, but still behind Ohio State. 
  5. 3. Clemson (11-0), LSU (10-0)
  6. In any case, it's quite clear who the top three teams are, whether you based it on merit, stats, schedule, or style points.
  7. 4. Georgia (10-1) Alabama (9-1)
  8. Georgia has been less dominant against its schedule, although it beat more ranked teams. On the Committee's own standard, I'm surprised that the Bulldogs are this high considering their loss to South Carolina is "worse" than the losses of several other one-loss teams; Alabama has the "best" loss, against LSU.
  1. 5. Alabama (9-1) Cincinnati (9-1)
  2. The Bearcats were drubbed by Ohio State 42-0 early in the season, but has otherwise rolled through a very strong American Athletic Conference. Do I want them in the playoff after being whipped by a  clearly superior opponent? No. It is a test of the strength of my system/formula to see if it winds up in the Top Four after the conference championship games are done. 
  3. 6. Oregon (9-1) Oregon (9-1)
  4. Knocking at the door. It may be easier for them to crack my Top Four instead of the Committee's, which seems to have their heart set on two SEC teams in the playoff.
  5. 7. Utah (9-1) Wisconsin  (8-2)
  6. The Badger's strength of schedule puts them this high in my formula, and winning out through the Big Ten championship game could put them in my Top Four. But, like Cincinnati, Wisconsin was drubbed by Ohio State. I wouldn't want to put them in the playoff. Again, it's another test of my formula.
  7. 8. Penn State (9-1) Utah (9-1)
  8. In my formula, Utah's not far behind Oregon and are essentially in the same position.
  9. 9. Oklahoma (9-1) Boise State (9-1)
  10. My formula is "no respecter of conferences," which means it doesn't disrespect any conference either. -- even if it's the Mountain West.
  11. 10. Minnesota (9-1) SMU (9-1)
  12. Both teams would have to win out and have other games break their way to reach the Top Four.
  13. 11. Florida (9-2), Notre Dame (8-2)
  14. The Irish win over Navy helped their schedule strength. 
  15. 12. Wisconsin (8-2), Georgia (9-1)
  16. "Why do you have Notre Dame over Georgia? They have a worse record and lost to Georgia head-to-head!" The Irish had a better schedule. But Georgia has a better path to the Top Four if it wins out.
  17. 13. Michigan (8-2) Michigan (8-2)
  18. Nothing to play for but pride now.
  19. 14. Baylor (9-1), Penn State (9-1) 
  20. These teams in the teens, including Penn State,  are very close to each other. If the Nittany Lions beat Ohio State and the B1G championship, they may have a leg up.
  21. 15. Auburn (7-3) Appalachian State (9-1)
  22. Appalachian State has a chance for a special season, but I see no path to the Top Four for them.
  23. 16. Notre Dame (8-2), Oklahoma (9-1)
  24. The Sooners can't hang their hat on beating a mediocre Texas team anymore; Baylor's their one quality win. Winning out might put them in the Committee's Top Four; I think they'd get pummeled in the playoffs and I don't see how they can make their way into my Top Four.
  25. 17. Iowa (7-3) Memphis (9-1)
  26. Winning out for Memphis would mean wins over Cincinnati and SMU, which could carry them into the Top Ten.
  27. 18. Memphis (9-1), Minnesota (9-1)
  28. The Gophers just hadn't been dominant against a soft schedule. Although the win against Penn State was big, the loss against Iowa set them back.
  29. 19. Cincinnati (9-1), Baylor (9-1)
  30. The Committee has given the Big 12 respect it hasn't earned, and doesn't know what to make of the best of the American Athletic Conference. 
  31. 20. Boise State (9-1), Florida (9-2)
  32. The Gators played not one, but two FCS teams, immensely crippling its strength of schedule.
  33. 21. Oklahoma State (7-3), Iowa (7-3)
  34. While I have the Hawkeyes lower than the Committee has them, they're the best of the 3-loss teams.
  35. 22. Iowa State (6-4), Auburn (7-3)
  36. Again, the Committee is over-rating the Big 12. Auburn could climb higher if it beats Alabama. 
  37. 23. USC (7-4) Louisiana (8-2)
  38. USC's win over Utah has them ranked by the Committee.
  39. 24. Appalachian State (9-1), San Diego State (8-2)
  40. 25. SMU (9-1), Air Force (8-2)
I have eight non-Power 5 teams in my Top 25, while the Committee has five such teams, all grouped near the bottom. My final rankings may very well more closely resemble theirs, but I don't believe some teams they have ranked today have actually earned their position. 

James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, your support through Paypal helps keep him going. Permission to reprint is granted with attribution.

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