Roughly a third of the NFL season has passed. It's time to assess the race for the NFL's Most Valuable Player award.
My methodology in figuring this out is simple.
1. How many wins does the team have?
2. How well did the player play in those wins. That is, not how well he played in losses, but only in wins.
I have confined the race to quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers, because they are responsible for most of the touchdowns.
Here are my benchmarks for being in the race at this juncture. Other players may be added, and some may drop off, as the season goes on. A player must:
- Be on a team with a winning record
- A quarterbacks gets 1 point for every victory in which he has a passer rating of 97 or higher; a back or receiver gets 1 point for every victory in which he has 85 or more total yards from scrimmage. Those numbers are sufficiently above average to matter; just 12 quarterbacks have a 97 rating for the season, and 25 backs/receivers average 85 yards per game.
Here are the rankings, with name, position, team, the team's won-loss record, and their number of points.
1. Russell Wilson, qb, Seahawks, 5-1, 5 points
2. (Tied, listed alphabetically)
Tom Brady, qb, Patriots, 6-0 4 points
Chris Carson, rb, Seahawks, 5-1, 4 points
Kirk Cousins, qb, Vikings, 4-2, 4 points
Alvin Kamara, rb, Saints, 5-1, 4 points
Michael Thomas, wr, Saints, 5-1, 4 points
7. (tied)
Dalvin Cook, rb, Vikings, 4-2, 3 points
Patrick Mahomes, qb, Chiefs, 4-2, 3 points
Christian McCaffrey, rb, Panthers, 4-2, 3 points
10. (tied)
Josh Allen, qb, Bills, 4-1, 2 points
Kyle Allen, qb, Panthers, 4-0, 2 points
Derek Carr, qb, Raiders, 3-2, 2 points
Teddy Bridgewater, qb, Saints, 4-0, 2 points
Jimmy Garappalo, qb, 49ers, 5-0, 2 points
Lamar Jackson, qb, Ravens, 4-2, 2 points
Deshaun Watson, qb, Texans, 4-2, 2 points
Do these results look right? Isn't Watson, for instance, better than Cousins? Isn't McCaffrey the talk of the league? Wouldn't you rather have Mahomes than Brady this year?
That's why I'm doing this. The numbers they put up in losses, and the fact they they may have had a some quiet games in victories, matters.
It's probable that Cousins will regress, and the Watsons and Mahomes of the league will have more great games in victories and surpass him. Then again, if the Vikings win out and Cousins is great in those games, his early-season struggles should be forgotten.
We'll see how it unfolds.
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, your support through Paypal helps keep him going. Permission to reprint is granted with attribution.
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