College Football Rankings Oct 21 2019

I may go into the specific methodology some other time, but in general a team is judged equally by:
  • the number of wins and losses against FBS (Division I-A) teams, with a bonus (or deduction) for a win (or loss) of 9+ points.
  • the average number of FBS wins by a team's opponents.
The perceived strength of a team's conference doesn't come into play, as long as it's FBS. While the teams at the top have plenty of blowout wins, they would still be at the top if they won each of those games by nine points. I make the 9+ point distinction because winning by two possessions, or locking the game before the last play, means there is less chance that dumb luck or referee error decided the game.

What hurts is playing FCS (Division I-AA) teams. I give no more credit to those games than I would a boxing match between heavyweight and a light-heavyweight. It put LSU at #4 and kept Oklahoma out of the top four and equal with Wisconsinm who has one loss.

I believe this ranking, 1-26, contains all teams that have at least five victories against FBS opponents.

Undefeated teams are in bold. Two-loss teams are in italics. The rest are one-loss teams.


1. Ohio State
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. LSU
5 tied.Oklahoma
5 tied Wisconsin
7. SMU
8. Penn State
9. Cincinnati
10. Auburn
11. Baylor
12. Minnesota
13. Notre Dame
14. Boise St.
15. Utah
16. Oregon
17. Appalachian State
18. Texas
19. Florida
20. Iowa
21. Michigan
22. Louisiana Tech
23. Memphis
24. Georgia
25. San Diego St
26. Wake Forest

I was interested in seeing how this methodology, ignoring "Power 5" and "Group of 5" conference distinctions, would lead to differences from the conventional rankings. I'm also interested in how my methodology compares to what the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will reveal next week.

Cincinnati and SMU, both of the American Athletic Conference, are each around 8-9 spots ahead of where they are in the AP and Coaches Polls, and Appalachian State is a few spots ahead.

I also have Florida and Georgia far lower than where they are in those polls; Florida because they've played not one but two FCS teams and that's how the tabulation goes, and Georgia because they've played more close games.

Arizona St., which is 5-2 but with just 4 FBS victories, is not on this list but is ranked #24 in both polls.

Ohio State is #1 because the depth of its schedule strength was as strong as anyone's. Assuming the top teams will win again this weekend, we'll see if the Committee agrees.

James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, your support through Paypal helps keep him going. Permission to reprint is granted with attribution.



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