[Updated to correct for formatting and data errors.]
In 2018 Baker Mayfield became the 23rd quarterback since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger to be selected first overall in the NFL draft. I was curious to see how successful the others were for the teams that selected them.
In 2018 Baker Mayfield became the 23rd quarterback since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger to be selected first overall in the NFL draft. I was curious to see how successful the others were for the teams that selected them.
Terry Bradshaw, for instance, played his entire career for the team that selected him. Jim Plunkett, on the other hand, had a career that included two Super Bowl championships, but they were with a different team from the one that selected him. I'm not including his post-Patriots career here.
Here's how I measure "success" for a quarterback:
1. How often did the team have a winning season in which he started the majority of games? This suggests the team was at least above-average and quarterback play likely had something to do with it.
2. How many conference championships did he win as quarterback? (Or, how many times did he make it to the Super Bowl?) To date, every quarterback eligible for the Pro Football Hall of Fame who has won 3 conference championships has been selected.
3. How many Super Bowl victories did he win? This, after all, is the hope in drafting a qb #1 overall: that he'll lead you to a Super Bowl title.
2. How many conference championships did he win as quarterback? (Or, how many times did he make it to the Super Bowl?) To date, every quarterback eligible for the Pro Football Hall of Fame who has won 3 conference championships has been selected.
3. How many Super Bowl victories did he win? This, after all, is the hope in drafting a qb #1 overall: that he'll lead you to a Super Bowl title.
4. How many Pro Bowls did he make? This indicates that the quality of individual quarterback play was high.
5. How many Most Valuable Player awards did he win? This indicates the quality of individual play was very high.
5. How many Most Valuable Player awards did he win? This indicates the quality of individual play was very high.
The hope in drafting a quarterback #1 is that he will earn a pile of championships for the team and awards for himself.
To tabulate success, I've awarded a point for each of these five markers for each season played, totaled them up, and then divided that total by the number of seasons the qb was with the team that drafted him.
I will rank the qbs based on this point system, to determine how much average value per season the team got for their selection.
Peyton Manning
Size: 6-5, 230
Seasons with team: 13
Winning seasons (as primary starter):11
Super Bowl appearances: 2
Super Bowl wins: 1
Pro Bowls: 11
MVPs: 4
29 points/13 seasons = 2.23
John Elway
Size: 6-3, 215
Seasons with team: 16
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 12
Super Bowl appearances: 5
Super Bowl wins: 2
Pro Bowls: 9
MVPs: 1
29 points/16 seasons = 1.81
Troy Aikman
Size: 6-4, 219
Seasons with team: 12
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 7
Super Bowl appearances: 3
Super Bowl wins: 3
Pro Bowls: 6
MVPs: 0
19 points/12 seasons = 1,58
Terry Bradshaw
Size: 6-3, 215
Seasons with team: 14
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 10
Super Bowl appearances: 4
Super Bowl wins: 4
Pro Bowls: 3
MVPs: 1
22 points/14 seasons = 1.57
Andrew Luck
Size: 6-4, 240
Seasons with team: 5
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 4
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 3
MVPs: 0
7 points/5 seasons = 1.4
Cam Newton
Size: 6-6, 260
Seasons with team: 7
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 3
Super Bowl appearances: 1
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 3
MVPs: 1
8 points/7 seasons = 1.14
Eli Manning
Size: 6-4, 218
Seasons with team: 14
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 7
Super Bowl appearances: 2
Super Bowl wins: 2
Pro Bowls: 4
MVPs: 0
15 points/14 seasons = 1.07
Drew Bledsoe
Size: 6-5, 238
Seasons with team: 9
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 4
Super Bowl appearances: 1
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 3
MVPs: 0
9 points/9 seasons = 1
Michael Vick
Size: 6-0, 215
Seasons with team: 6
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 3
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 3
MVPs: 0
6 points/6 seasons - 1.0
Jared Goff
Size: 6-4, 210
Seasons with team: 2
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 1
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 1
MVPs: 0
2 seasons/2 points = 1.0
Jameis Winston
Size: 6-4, 232
Seasons with team: 3
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 1
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 1
MVPs: 0
2 points/3 seasons = 0.67
Carson Palmer
Size: 6-5, 230
Seasons with team: 7
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 2
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 2
MVP's: 0
4 points/7 seasons = 0.57
Matthew Stafford
Size: 6-2, 230
Seasons with team: 9
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 4
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 1
MVPs: 0
5 points/9 seasons = 0.56
Steve Bartkowski
Size: 6-4, 216
Seasons with team: 11
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 3
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 2
MVPs: 0
5 points/11 seasons = 0.45
Alex Smith
Size: 6-4, 212
Seasons with team: 7
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 2
Super Bowl appearances: 0 (as starter)
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 0
MVP's: 0
2 points/7 seasons = 0.29
Jeff George
Size: 6-4, 218
Seasons with team: 4
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 1
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 0
MVPs: 0
1 point/4seasons = 0.25
Tim Couch
Size: 6-4, 220
Seasons with team: 5
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 1
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 0
MVP's: 0
1 point/5 seasons = 0.2
Vinny Testaverde
Size: 6-5, 235
Seasons with team: 6
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 0
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 0
MVPs: 0
0 points/6 seasons = 0
Jim Plunkett
Size: 6-3, 220
Seasons with team: 5
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 0
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 0
MVPs: 0
0 points/5 seasons = 0
David Carr
Size: 6-3, 215
Seasons with team: 5
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 0
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 0
MVP's: 0
0 points/5 seasons= 0
Sam Bradford
Size: 6-4, 236
Seasons with team: 5
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 0
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 0
MVPs: 0
0 points/5 seasons = 0
JaMarcus Russell
Size: 6-6, 265
Seasons with team: 3
Winning seasons (as primary starter): 0
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Pro Bowls: 0
MVPs: 0
0 points/0 seasons = 0
Several questions may be raised by my point system. Such as, should anyone be ranked ahead of Terry Bradshaw on this list? Was Steve Bartkowski really as unsuccessful as his score indicates? Other questions come to mind.
I will address these and other questions in additional posts that will link back to this post. If nothing else, this will serve as a reference.
Comments
Post a Comment