NBA MVP Chase and the importance of the second-best player

Here are the Top 60 MVP point earners through December 6, 2019, followed by some thoughts:

1. LeBron James, Lakers,  20-3, 102 MVP points
2. Giannis Antetokounpo, Bucks, 20-3, 101
3. Jayson Tatum, Celtics, 16-5,  82
4. Anthony Davis, Lakers, 20-3, 78 
5. Pascal Siakam, Raptors, 15-6, 72
6. Jimmy Butler, Heat. 16-6  72
7. James Harden, Rockets, 14-7, 68
8. Fred VanVleet Raptors, 15-6, 63
8, Luka Doncic, Mavericks, 15-6, 63
10. Domantas Sabonis, Pacers,  14-8, 57
10. Montrezl Harrell, Clippers, 16-7, 57
12. Ben Simmons, 76ers, 15-7,  56
13. T.J. Warren, Pacers, 14-8, 54
14. Kemba Walker, Celtics, 16-5, 53
14. Bam Adebayo, Heat, 16-6, 53
14. Tobias Harris, 76ers, 15-7, 53
17. Jamal Murray, Nuggets, 14-6, 52
17. Rudy Gobert, Jazz, 12-10,  52
19. Lou Williams, Clippers, 16-7, 51
19. Donovan Mitchell, Jazz, 12-10, 51
19. Al Horford, 76ers, 15-7,  51
22. Gary Harris, Nuggets, 14-6, 50
22. Eric Bledsoe, Bucks, 20-3, 50
24. Bojan Bogdanovic, Jazz, 12-10, 49
25. PJ Tucker, Rockets, 14-7,  47
25. Kawhi Leonard, Clippers, 16-7, 47
25. OG Anunoby, Raptors, 15-6, 47
25. Devin Booker, Suns, 10-11, 47
25. Joe Harris, Nets, 12-10, 47
30. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets, 14-6, 46
30. Wesley Matthews, Bucks, 20-3, 46
32. Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves, 10-11, 45
33. Josh Richardson, 76ers, 15-7, 44
33. Kristaps Porzingis, Mavericks, 15-6, 44
33. Damian Lillard, Trailblazers, 9-14, 44
33. Devonte Graham, Hornets, 9-15, 43
37. Will Barton, Nuggets, 14-6, 42
37. Jaylen Brown, Celtics, 16-5, 42
37. Evan Fournier, Magic, 11-11, 42
40. Malcom Brogdon, Pacers, 14-8, 41
40. Macus Smart, Celtics, 16-5, 41
42. Taurean Prince, Nets, 12-10, 40
43. Spencer Dinwiddle, Nets, 12-10, 39
43. DeMar DeRozan, Spurs, 9-14, 39
45. Andre Drummond, Pistons, 9-14, 38
46. Delon Wright, Mavericks, 15-6, 37
47. Joel Embiid, 76ers, 15-7, 36
47. Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves, 36
47. Patrick Beverly, Clippers, 10-11,  36
47. Luke Kennard Pistons, 9-14, 36
47. Marc Gasol, Raptors, 15-6, 36
52. Danny Green, Lakers, 20-3, 35
53. Paul Millsap, Nuggets, 14-6, 34
53. Brook Lopez, Bucks, 20-3, 34
53. Harrison Barnes, Kings, 8-13, 34
53. Kendrick Nunn, Heat, 16-6, 34
53. Kentavius Caldwell-Pope, Lakers, 20-3, 34
53. Chris Paul, Thunder, 9-12, 34
53. Patty Mills, Spurs, 9-14, 34
53. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder, 9-12, 34

My MVP Chase assumption is that season stats shouldn't contribute to selecting the NBA MVP award so much as actual contributions to victories, measured in minutes played and +/- (points scored minus points allowed while the player was on the floor).

Because only victories help a player's MVP case, the list has have many teammates. Some are on the list because the rising tide lifts all boats, that is, because a dominant franchise player produces wins that his teammates then get credit for. But other teams appear to be winning because two or three star teammates are sharing the load. And it made me wonder.

Often we've thought about the MVP contenders with a question like, "Where would Team A be without MVP Candidate X, compared to where would Team B be without MVP candidate Y?"

But I wonder if we shouldn't ask, instead, "How would the team be without its second-best player?"

For instance, take Anthony Davis,the 2nd-best player on the Lakers, off the team. I would guess they would be just fine; they have a healthy LeBron, after all. They'd be playoff-bound. But also several games away from 20-3.

Then, take second-best Bucks player off the team. I wouldn't be surprised if they were still 20-3. That's the testament to Giannis's value.

So I decided to measure the distance in MVP points between a team's leading player and his next-closest teammate. For instance, the difference between LeBron and Anthony Davis is 24 MVP points (102-78). 

Among the Top Ten MVP Chase leaders, excluding Davis and VanVleet (who are 2nd-place on their own teams), here are the results:  

Giannis (Eric Bledsoe) 51
Jayson Tatum (Kemba Walker) 41 
Lebron (Anthony Davis) 24
Harden (PJ Tucker) 21
Butler (Bam Abedayo) 19
Luka (Kristaps Porzingis) 19
Siakam (Fred VanVleet) 9
Sabonis (TJ Warren) 3

This isn't conclusive of anything, but I think it's interesting information as we go forward.

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