NBA MVP Chase: LeBron in the lead, but bet on the Clippers in May

No stats, no eyeball tests, just minutes played plus +/- in victories.

Today I'm posting the top 30. This doesn't mean all of them are serious MVP contenders; I'm closer to Joe Harris in MVP points than he is to LeBron James. But I wanted to give you a good look at how the winning teams are winning games. 

First, the rankings, ad then my observations:

1. LeBron James, Lakers, 15-2, 78 MVP points
2. Giannis Antetokounpo, Bucks, 14-3, 76
3. Anthony Davis, Lakers, 15-2, 62
4. Jayson Tatum, Celtics, 12-4,  60 
5. Pascal Siakam, Raptors, 12-4, 57
6. Fred VanVleet Raptors, 12/4 53
7. Jamal Murray, Nuggets, 13-3, 52
T8. James Harden, Rockets, 11-6, 51
T8. Jimmy Butler, Heat, 12-4,  51
T10. Luka Doncic, Mavericks, 11-6 50
T10. Gary Harris, Nuggets, 13-3, 50
12. Rudy Gobert, Jazz, 11-6, 48
13. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets,  13-3, 46
T14. Kemba Walker, Celtics, 12-4, 45
T14. Donovan Mitchell, Jazz, 11-6, 45
T16. Josh Richardson, 76ers, 11-6, 44
T16. Bojan Bogdanovic, Jazz, 11-6, 44
18. Domantas Sabonis, Pacers, 10-6,  43
19. Will Barton, Clippers, 13-5, 42
20. Ben Simmons, 76ers, 11-6,  41
21. Bam Abedayo, Heat, 12-4, 38
22. Montrezl Harrel, Clippers, 13-5, 41
T23. Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves, 9-8, 39
T23. Al Horford, 76ers,  11-6, 39
T25. Lou Williams, Clippers, 13-5, 37
T25. Kawhi Leonard, Clippers, 13-5, 37
27. Tobias Harris, 76ers, 11-6, 36
T28. Devin Booker, Suns, 8-8,  35
T28. T.J. Warren, Pacers, 10-6,  35
T28. Joe Harris, Nets, 9-8, 35

In total, 15 teams are represented. Not coincidentally, each of the 15 teams with the best record are represented at least once.

Number of players in the Top 30:

Clippers: 4
76ers: 4
Nuggets: 3 (a 4th is tied for 31st)
Jazz: 3
Raptors: 2 (a third is tied for 31st)
Lakers: 2
Celtics: 2
Heat: 2
Pacers: 2
Bucks: 1
Rockets: 1
Mavericks: 1
Suns: 1
Nets: 1
Timberwolves: 1

What's remarkable about the 76ers it that its most talented player, Joel Embiid, is being "load managed" and isn't on the list. Nobody's "carrying" that team. The Clippers are similar, as their 2nd-best player, Paul George, just recently joined the team after injury.

If trends after 20% of the regular season keep up, they might be the deepest teams in terms of top five or six players in the rotation. Other teams like the Lakers have Lebron and Davis dominating with a longer cast of characters sharing the load from game to game; that's why there are only two Lakers on the list.

Giannis of the Bucks, on the other hand, has no teammate in the top 30 to share the load. This might suggest a deep roster considering their 14-3 record, but perhaps thin at the top. If winning trends continue and every top player stays healthy and continues their pace, I'd probably give the nod to Giannis for MVP over LeBron, just for that reason; he doesn't have an Anthony Davis with him.

But come the playoffs, I could see the Clippers and 76ers wearing the Lakers and Bucks down with deeper lineups.




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